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Hoffenheim vs Union Berlin

Fri 23 Apr 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 31 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Hoffenheim win: 53.4%

Draw: 23.7%

Union Berlin win: 22.9%

Predicted: Hoffenheim

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 64.3%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 68.4%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.95

More corners: Hoffenheim (59.8% home / 40.2% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Hoffenheim

Yes

Probability Hoffenheim wins or draws: 69.1%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Hoffenheim Clearest lean of the available outcomes (53% vs next-best 24%). (53.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (64.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (68.0% model probability) High

Corners Hoffenheim (more corners) (60.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Hoffenheim win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (69.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.